Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
